Here we go! These are my best educated guesses of who might win the Oscars in each of the big eight categories. I have some guesses for a few of the smaller films at the bottom, but I didn't do all of them because some categories (like Best Animated and Live-Action Shorts), I just have no clue about.
Best Picture
American Beauty
The Cider House Rules
The Green Mile
The Insider
The Sixth Sense
My pick is American Beauty, 1999's Forrest Gump. The film got the most nominations and has achieved loads of critical acclaim as well as a lot of financial success (as I write these words, the film is on the verge of breaking $100 mil). It was voted best movie of all time in a poll on the Internet Movie Database. It oughta at least win the best movie of the year.
Best Director
Sam Mendes, American Beauty
Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich
Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules
Michael Mann, The Insider
M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense
Normally you want to pick the director of the best picture, but this year we have a lot of no-name folks and first time directors nominated. I think the Academy wanted to honor them with a nomination but will give the Oscar to a director who is well-established in the Hollywood scene, namely Michael Mann.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Cider House Rules, John Irving
Election, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor
The Green Mile, Frank Darabont
The Insider, Eric Roth and Michael Mann
The Talented Mr. Ripley, Anthony Minghella
Here's my method for picking adapted screenplays. First, eliminate things that weren't books; plays are too easy to adapt, as are real life events. So say goodbye to Election and The Insider. Next, it's gotta be a best picture nominee, so right there we can get rid of Mr. Ripley. Finally you have to pick the one that got the wider release and more people saw. That narrows it down to one choice: The Green Mile. Take into account the Shawshank factor and you've got yourself a lock.
Best Original Screenplay
American Beauty, Alan Ball
Being John Malkovich, Charlie Kaufman
Magnolia, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Sixth Sense, M. Night Shyamalan
Topsy-Turvy, Mike Leigh
Again, if it's not nominated for best picture, forget it; it's got no shot. Then go with what you think is the shoo-in to take that category and go with it. So, though I would love it if more innovative scripts like Being John Malkovich or Magnolia would win, American Beauty will. Remember that this script has been released in book form and has sold pretty well.
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Caine, Cider House Rules
Tom Cruise, Magnolia
Michael Clarke Duncan, The Green Mile
Jude Law, Talented Mr. Ripley
Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense
As always, the support categories are tough to call. The three big nominees are Cruise (with his Golden Globe and multiple nominations in the past without a win), Duncan, and Osment (with performances that were both being touted as early as April as the ones to beat). My guess is Haley Joel Osment. Even though others might have done a better job, factor in his age and you know the Academy members were voting for him. I don't think there was enough of a backlash against the movie's popularity to cancel out his cuteness. But it's a close one, and I wouldn't make any hard bets.
Best Supporting Actress
Toni Colette, The Sixth Sense
Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted
Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich
Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown
Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don't Cry
This category is a little unusual this year. Normally this category is tough to call but this year only one of the nominees is a recognizable name: Angelina Jolie. The rest of them are folks whose names you don't know or are in movies you haven't seen. Plus, Jolie won the Golden Globe so I think she's a sure bet.
Best Actor
Russell Crowe, The Insider
Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story
Sean Penn, Sweet and Lowdown
Kevin Spacey, American Beauty
Denzel Washington, The Hurricane
Kevin Spacey's got this one in the bag. He was the most likely according to popular opinion but the SAG Award clinched it.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, American Beauty
Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds
Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair
Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart
Hilary Swank, Boys Don't Cry
Also a SAG Award winner, Annette Bening rounds out the American Beauty nominees who will probably win the Oscar.
My choices for Foreign Film and Documentary Feature are the only films in those categories that I've heard of, All About My Mother and Buena Vista Social Club. The Matrix, nominated for Sound, Sound Effects Editing, Visual Effects, and Film Editing, will probably sweep those categories, even when it's up against Phantom Menace, since it was so technically masterful and also so cool. The sure things in the musical categories are the big names, Randy Newman's song from Toy Story 2 (esp. since he lost in both categories, song and score, last year) and the score from Angela's Ashes, by John Williams. Art Direction will go to Sleepy Hollow since the crew built a whole city(!) for the film. Snow Falling on Cedars will get Cinematography, and Bicentennial Man will take Makeup. Costume Design will probably go to Topsy-turvy, 'cause it's British, historical, and traditional, as opposed to the more outrageous but also more inventive Titus.
That's it. My guesses. Not to be used for betting purposes, unless I get a cut. :)
Don't forget; the Oscars are coming up on the 26th, and they should be short this year. (Yeah right.) Sign my guestbook and let me know what you think when the results are in.
